About Us
AveragePoll.com aims to provide you a clear picture of how the upcoming elections are shaping up. As you might have noticed in the current presidential election season, polls from different polling agencies sometimes diverge widely from each other. Furthermore, the more divergent and unexpected a poll's result is, the more likely it will end up in the news.
We at AveragePoll.com believe that weighted aggregation of all relevant polls can more accurately depict the current voter sentiment than individual polls. We present two main averages for all the elections we cover: the Five Day Average and the Five Poll Average. The Five Day Average is the sample-size weighted average of all polls closed in the last five days. The Five Poll Average is the sample-size weighted average of the most recent five polls. Both averages would help to cancel out the random fluctuations of popular sentiment, and the errors/idiosyncrasies of individual polls. We hope that the upcoming elections would show that, both our Five Day Average and Five Poll Average would predict election results better than most individual polls.
Sample-size weighting: polls can vary considerably in size. Some regional polls collect opinions from as little as 250 people, and some collect opinions from more than 2000. It is not optimal to treat all these polls as equivalent. Instead, polls with big samples outweigh polls with small samples in our average calculation.
This site is set up by Tony Z. Tang of Northwestern University.