AveragePoll.com

With favorable demographics, Clinton again outperformed expectation somewhat and crushed Obama by 41% in West Virginia.This is at least partly due to that Obama made no serious effort to campaign here.  The primary competition now continues on to Oregon and Kentucky.

Despite the conventional wisdom that Hillary Clinton is finished, West Virginia might very well revive her campaign. Before Obama’s convincing victory in North Carolina, Clinton led Obama in the polls by almost 30 points in West Virginia. In Ohio and Pennsylvania counties similar in demographics to West Virginia, Clinton often crushed Obama with 30%+ margin.

Even with his recent momentum, Obama is unlikely to win West Virginia. The state is 95% white, and poor. This voting group has not abandoned Clinton yet. Obama’s long association with his controversial Pastor, his statement about “bitter” small town voters “cling” to “guns” and “religion”, are also particularly damaging here. West Virginia media market is also small enough and cheap enough that Obama’s overwhelming advantage in campaign funds will have limited effect.

If Obama suffers a defeat of more than 20%, it might seriously tarnish his image as the inevitable nominee. It would also sharply remind everybody how unpopular he is among poor white democratic voters. Clinton’s campaign would also no doubt receive a boost in morale and campaign funds. If Obama loses by more than 30% or even 40%, it would also revive the hope of the Clinton campaign to overtake him in popular votes.