Oregon definitely favors Barack Obama. While there is not a large black population here, Obama has been very strong among the more liberal and better educated white voters, which are over-represented in Oregon. In all recent polls, Obama has led Clinton by more than 10%. Clinton’s crushing victory in West Virginia is unlikely to change that. Nevertheless, Clinton is favored to win in Kentucky on the same day by a bigger margin. Thus, it is unlikely that a loss in Oregon will end Clinton’s race.
Clinton’s campaign reportedly face $20 million worth of debt, including at least $6 million to herself. However, if she quits before the end of the primary season, she can only raise money till the Denver convention to repay the debt. If she carries on to the end, she can raise money indefinitely to repay this debt. Thus, financially, the current laws encourages her to carry on. Furthermore, campaigning in the last few states is much cheaper than in major states like Texas and Pennsylvania. With the kind of toughness and resourcefulness she has shown so far, she ought to be able to go all the way.
The meeting of the Democratic party’s rules committee on May 31st will decide whether (and how) to seat the delegates from Michigan and Florida. The conventional wisdom is that the outcome will be neutral: some delegates from these important states will have to be seated somehow, but not enough to change the race. However, it is probably rational for the Clinton campaign to hang on till then, and hope for an unlikely breakthrough.
Obama probably missed his last chance to end the race early when he lost Indiana. Now his only real hope to end the primary campaign early is that perhaps enough super delegates will endorse him in the next few weeks. Obama has been picking up super delegates much faster than Clinton after his North Carolina victory. Nevertheless, with her crushing victory in West Virginia and Kentucky, Clinton can probably slow down the tide just enough so that Obama cannot secure the nomination after all the primary states voted.