Recent Kentucky polls have overwhelmingly favored Clinton, often by about 30% margin. She will probably score another blow-out victory here, much like in West Virginia. Kentucky also offers almost twice as many delegates as West Virginia (51 vs. 28).
How much this matters is debatable. Obama camp likes to argue that Clinton cannot catch up with him in elected delegates anymore, regardless of the victories in West Virginia, Kentucky, and possibly Puerto Rico. Thus, the super delegates ought to just all endorse him now and so Democrats can unite and start prepare for the general election.
Clinton camp can argue that Obama technically has not won yet. And his big loss in West Virginia and Kentucky expose his weaknesses among White and working class voters. Clinton campaign can also hope that:
- another crushing victory in Kentucky will at least stall the flow of super delegates to Barack Obama’s camp. This might prevent Obama from becoming the nominee before convention. When the convention meets in Denver, the situation might become highly volatile. Pledged delegates have to vote for their designated presidential candidate only in the first ballot, and super delegates can vote for whoever they want. If chaos ensures, Clinton has about as good a chance to emerge as the winner as Obama.
- a big victory in Kentucky might give her a lead in all the popular votes cast during the primary campaign. Counting Florida but not Michigan (where Obama was not on the ballot), she is behind by only about 300,000 popular votes. A 30-40% victory in Kentucky will give her at least 150,000, maybe even 300,000 outright, depending on the turn out. Even if she only came close after Kentucky and Oregon, another expected big win in Puerto Rico can surely take her over the top. If she close the primary season as the winner of all popular votes, her case of why the super delegates should vote for her will become much strong.