Indiana holds its presidential primaries on May 6th. As Senator John McCain has already secured his nomination, the Republican primary is of little consequence. This year’s Indiana Democratic primary, however, might turn out to be the long-awaited decisive battle between Senator Hillary Clinton and Senator Barack Obama.
Barack Obama leads in most recent polls, but his margin is generally small, and might have became even smaller after his defeat in Pennsylvania. (A SurveyUSA poll in early April gave Mrs. Clinton a lead of 16 points, but that has not been replicated in later polls.) It is also worth noting that Senator Clinton performed a few points better than her poll numbers in Texas, Ohio, and Pennsylvania.
While neither Barack Obama or Hillary Clinton can realistically win enough pledged delegates to secure the nomination, both are counting on good Indiana results to swing more super delegates to their side. Clinton comes into Indiana with the momentum of winning Ohio, Texas, and Pennsylvania, a string of large states crucial to the presidential election. However, with an almost-assured win in North Carolina on the same day and a modest but difficult-to-surpass lead in delegates, Obama is in a stronger position. If Clinton performs poorly in Indiana, she might have to end her campaign to be the first female President. This is probably Obama’s best and last chance to secure the nomination before the Democratic Party conference. Nevertheless, even if Obama losses Indiana, he will still retain his leads in delegates and in campaign funds, and his campaign will argue that nothing has changed just as after losing Texas, Ohio, and Pennsylvania.
With only 8% black voters and 3% Latino voters, the Indiana primary is largely a contest for White voters. Clinton is backed by Indiana Senator (and ex-governor) Evan Bayh. A substantial minority of Indiana voters live near Chicago, the home base of Illinois Senator Obama. Some of them probably drive past his home in south Chicago on their way to work downtown. Obama can also vastly outspend Clinton, as in Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Texas. His campaign has more than $40 million at hand and almost no debt. Clinton’s campaign, however, had no money left by the eve of the Pennsylvania primary. In the 24 hours after her Pennsylvania victory, Clinton’s campaign raised more than $10 million dollars over the internet. Such influx of campaign donations should enable Senator Clinton to keep on running, but Obama’s campaign is still expected to raise and spend much more money than hers.